The 2001 recession and the Chicago Fed National Index: identifying business cycle turning points

The initial release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in early 2001 pointed to the very real possibility that the U.S. economy was teetering on the brink of recession. This article quantifies the statistical ability of the CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic recessions. In simulation experiments, the CFNAI performed virtually as well as the statistical model's ideal measure of the business cycle.Recessions ; Economic indicators ; Index numbers (Economics) ; Business cycles

Hepatic retransplantation in cholestatic liver disease: Impact of the interval to retransplantation on survival and resource utilization

The aim of our study was to quantitatively assess the impact of hepatic retransplantation on patient and graft survival and resource utilization. We studied patients undergoing hepatic retransplantation among 447 transplant recipients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) at 3 transplantation centers. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used for survival analysis. Measures of resource utilization included the duration of hospitalization, length of stay in the intensive care unit, and the duration of transplantation surgery. Forty-six (10.3%) patients received 2 or more grafts during the follow-up period (median, 2.8 years). Patients who underwent retransplantation had a 3.8-fold increase in the risk of death compared with those without retransplantation (P < .01). Retransplantation after an interval of greater than 30 days from the primary graft was associated with a 6.7-fold increase in the risk of death (P < .01). The survival following retransplantations performed 30 days or earlier was similar to primary transplantations. Resource utilization was higher in patients who underwent multiple consecutive transplantations, even after adjustment for the number of grafts during the hospitalization. Among cholestatic liver disease patients, poor survival following hepatic retransplantation is attributed to late retransplantations, namely those performed more than 30 days after the initial transplantation. While efforts must be made to improve the outcome following retransplantation, a more critical evaluation may be warranted for late retransplantation candidates

Morphology of Mouse Anterior Cruciate Ligament-Complex Changes Following Exercise During Pubertal Growth

Postnatal development and the physiological loading response of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) complex (ACL proper, entheses, and bony morphology) is not well understood. We tested whether the ACL-complex of two inbred mouse strains that collectively encompass the musculoskeletal variation observed in humans would demonstrate significant morphological differences following voluntary cage-wheel running during puberty compared with normal cage activity controls. Female A/J and C57BL/6J (B6) 6-week-old mice were provided unrestricted access to a standard cage-wheel for 4 weeks. A/J-exercise mice showed a 6.3% narrower ACL (p-=-0.64), and a 20.1% more stenotic femoral notch (p-<-0.01) while B6-exercise mice showed a 12.3% wider ACL (p-=-0.10), compared with their respective controls. Additionally, A/J-exercise mice showed a 5.3% less steep posterior medial tibial slope (p-=-0.07) and an 8.8% less steep posterior lateral tibial slope (p-=-0.07), while B6-exercise mice showed a 9.8% more steep posterior medial tibial slope (p-<-0.01) than their respective controls. A/J-exercise mice also showed more reinforcement of the ACL tibial enthesis with a 20.4% larger area (p-<-0.01) of calcified fibrocartilage distributed at a 29.2% greater depth (p-=-0.02) within the tibial enthesis, compared with their controls. These outcomes suggest exercise during puberty significantly influences ACL-complex morphology and that inherent morphological differences between these mice, as observed in their less active genetically similar control groups, resulted in a divergent phenotypic outcome between mouse strains. © 2019 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 37:1910-1919, 2019Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151297/1/jor24328.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151297/2/jor24328_am.pd

Minsky machines and algorithmic problems

This is a survey of using Minsky machines to study algorithmic problems in semigroups, groups and other algebraic systems.Comment: 19 page

Drivers of Banks’ Financial Performance

A significant number of banks folded up during the Ghanaian banking financial crisis of 2017 to 2018 causing significant social costs as well as impeding economic growth. We take a step backward to present the significant drivers of the profitability of banks in Ghana. Obtaining panel data from the banks’ websites, the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), and the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE), the regression analysis was used to assess the drivers of profitability of banks in Ghana. The findings show that the bank-specific variables had no combined effect on profitability. Hence, the study concludes that the bank-specific variables do not have a significant influence on the performance of the Ghanaian listed banks. On the other hand, some of the external factors were observed to have a significant influence on profitability. The findings further showed that the drivers of profitability of the Ghanaian banks were, inflation, capital adequacy, and monetary policy. Since these are all external factors, the banks must learn how to predict and anticipate the external factors and make adjustments in their operations to enable them to improve profitability. While this study recommends to the managers of Ghanaian banks to be cautious in their operational decisions, the economy must also be managed soundly to ensure the growth of banks and hopefully avoid future crises

Social and ecological effectiveness of large marine protected areas

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Large marine protected areas are increasingly being established to meet global conservation targets and promote sustainable use of resources. Although the factors affecting the performance of small-scale marine protected areas are relatively well studied, there is no such body of knowledge for large marine protected areas. We conducted a global meta-analysis to systematically investigate social, ecological, and governance characteristics of successful large marine protected areas with respect to several social and ecological outcomes. We included all large (>10,000km2), implemented (>5 years of active management) marine protected areas that had sufficient data for analysis, for a total of twelve cases. We used the Social-Ecological Systems Meta-Analysis Database, and a consistent protocol for using secondary data and key informant interviews, to code proxies for fisheries, ecosystem health, and the wellbeing of user groups (mainly fishers). We tested four sets of hypotheses derived from the literature on smallscale marine protected areas and common-pool resources: (i) the attributes of species and ecosystems to be managed in the marine protected area, (ii) adherence to principles for designing small-scale marine protected areas, (iii) adherence to the design principles for common-pool resource management, and (iv) stakeholder participation. We found varying levels of support for these hypotheses. Improved fisheries were associated with older marine protected areas, and higher levels of enforcement. Declining fisheries were associated with several ecological and economic factors, including low productivity, high mobility, and high market value. High levels of participation were correlated with improvements in wellbeing and ecosystem health trends. Overall, this study constitutes an important first step in identifying factors affecting social wellbeing and ecological performance of large marine protected areas.NCB thanks SSHRC and NSERC. CMB was supported by the Price Fellowship and Stanford University’s Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environmental Resources. GE is supported by a SSHRC postdoctoral fellowship. We gratefully acknowledge participants of our key informant interviewsThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record

Assessing trade-offs in large marine protected areas

This is the final version. Available on open access from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this recordData Availability: Data of coded case-studies can be viewed at: https://sesmad.dartmouth.edu/ses_casesLarge marine protected areas (LMPAs) are increasingly being established and have a high profile in marine conservation. LMPAs are expected to achieve multiple objectives, and because of their size are postulated to avoid trade-offs that are common in smaller MPAs. However, evaluations across multiple outcomes are lacking. We used a systematic approach to code several social and ecological outcomes of 12 LMPAs. We found evidence of three types of trade-offs: trade-offs between different ecological resources (supply trade-offs); trade-offs between ecological resource conditions and the well-being of resource users (supply-demand trade-offs); and trade-offs between the well-being outcomes of different resource users (demand trade-offs). We also found several divergent outcomes that were attributed to influences beyond the scope of the LMPA. We suggest that despite their size, trade-offs can develop in LMPAs and should be considered in planning and design. LMPAs may improve their performance across multiple social and ecological objectives if integrated with larger-scale conservation efforts.Social Science and Humanities Research Council of CanadaNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canad

Susceptibility to Peer Pressure, Self-Esteem, and Health Locus of Control as Correlates of Adolescent Substance Abuse

As part of a school-based alcohol misuse prevention study, questionnaires were ad ministered to 2,589 fifth and sixth grade students to determine levels of use of alcohol, marijuana, and cigarettes, intentions to use these substances, and problems resulting from alcohol misuse. The questionnaire also included 45 items concerning susceptibil ity to peer pressure, self-esteem, and health locus of control. These 45 items were factor analyzed separately for two groups formed by random assignment. Six factors were identified which were both internally consistent and replicable, and indices were constructed. The indices measuring susceptibility to peer pressure, self-esteem, and internal health locus of control were significantly and negatively correlated with most of the substance use, misuse, and intention items, and an external health locus of con trol index was not significantly related to most of the substance use, misuse, and inten tion items. The "Susceptibility to Peer Pressure" index correlated more highly with the adolescent substance use, misuse, and intention items than the self-esteem or the health locus of control indices, and it had the highest alpha coefficient. Implications for the design of school-based substance abuse prevention programs are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68065/2/10.1177_109019818701400207.pd

Detection of H2O and evidence for TiO/VO in an ultra hot exoplanet atmosphere

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from American Astronomical Society via the DOI in this recordWe present a primary transit observation for the ultra hot (Teq 2400 K) gas giant expolanetWASP-121b, made using the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 in spectroscopic mode across the 1.12{1.64 m wavelength range. The 1.4 m water absorption band is detected at high con dence (5:4 ) in the planetary atmosphere. We also reanalyze ground-based photometric lightcurves taken in the B, r0, and z0 lters. Signi cantly deeper transits are measured in these optical bandpasses relative to the near-infrared wavelengths. We conclude that scattering by high-altitude haze alone is unlikely to account for this di erence, and instead interpret it as evidence for titanium oxide and vanadium oxide absorption. Enhanced opacity is also inferred across the 1:12{1:3 m wavelength range, possibly due to iron hydride absorption. If con rmed, WASP-121b will be the rst exoplanet with titanium oxide, vanadium oxide, and iron hydride detected in transmission. The latter are important species in M/L dwarfs, and their presence is likely to have a signi cant e ect on the overall physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, including the production of a strong thermal inversionThe research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013) ERC grant agreement no. 336792